Too much too soon? Lessons from the Wind Industry

Wind turbines became popular and underwent rapid evolution during the 1990s and early 2000s, fueled by climate change concerns that motivated exploration into alternate, clean sources of energy. Governments recognized it and incentivized investments. The technology had existed before, but had potential for massive upgrade to achieve much higher efficiencies. Engineering and R&D in this area got a boost. Every couple of years companies started launching new turbines with higher MW ratings.

For a wind turbine to generate maximum energy, it has to be placed on a site with good wind conditions. In that, all places are not equal. For example, in India, there are places where wind profiles are strong, and others where they are weak. Also, wind turbines need to be in relatively uninhabited places because they generate sounds at frequencies that are not healthy. They need to be spaced apart adequately so that they don't interfere with each other. They are massive, and are installed in large numbers to develop what are called 'wind farms'. They must stay put and be operational for 20+ years for the investments to make sense.

Now you want to place your best machines in the best places. But the best machine is best only at a point in time. While the best place is always the best. And this is where the most logical approach is also a bit silly. The best places are taken up pretty early with machines that were best at that time. However, in an emerging technology-intensive industry that is getting a lot of attention, there's constant race to develop better machines. And each upgrade makes the earlier one seem like a toy. But the irony is that the toy got the better playground. Since the best wind sites are taken, the new, better machines have to settle for poor sites.

The industry tried to mitigate this in two ways. (1) Move offshore, to find great wind conditions - but offshore has its own challenges, (2) Develop turbines for poor wind conditions - which is like developing cars for poor roads as the highways are inaccessible.

As the industry matures, the turbines in great sites get old and up for replacement. And at that point, you can put your new ones in the best places again.

It's a wave, and there's little you can do to beat it, especially in a fiercely competitive market.

Now draw parallels and think about investments in AI based solutions. In a scramble to get onboard are companies investing too much too soon? Are companies creating legacy issues for themselves by jumping to adopt while the technology and its capabilities are evolving too fast? Is it FOMO or smart investing for efficiency and value? May be the truth lies in between.

Most AI startup ideas I came across a couple of years ago based on the shape of LLM's back then are obsolete now. It's probably how any new tech waves emerge and then gradually stabilize - short and quick early on, long and slow as they wane.

Originally posted on LinkedIn on 30 April 2026